If the Medicare provisions in the act are repealed, the impact on drug prices could be significant.
5. The underlying cost of drugs is still rising.
For 40 years, the cost of health care in retirement has continued to rise between one-and-a-half and two times as fast as the overall Consumer Price Index.
The Medicare budget has grown from $7.5 billion in 1970 to more than $1 trillion this year.
Although Trump has promised to not cut Social Security or Medicare benefits, the math simply doesn’t work.
The Biden administration’s plans to add weight loss drugs to Medicare coverage will increase costs to the program, as would Trump’s proposals to provide coverage for in-home care.
The elimination of taxation on Social Security (which Trump announced his support for during his campaign) would reduce revenue. And, if tariffs are applied to all goods produced outside the United States, the cost of imported drugs will rise.
Eventually there will have to be changes to these programs if they are to continue in their current form and offer promised benefits.
More cost-sharing in the form of reduced benefits, higher deductibles and premiums for clients is inevitable.
The further a client is from retirement, the greater the impact rising costs will have on budgets.
For an average 55-year-old healthy couple retiring in 10 years, using 2024 numbers and inflation rates, our data show that affluent clients can expect to incur $321,797 in lifetime prescription drug costs and $1,373,278 in health care costs overall including Part B and D premiums, dental, hearing and eye care.
This is a starting point for advisors to build and review retirement health care plans that take into account a range of scenarios, including potential changes to Medicare in 2025 and beyond.
The challenge of managing portfolios during accumulation and decumulation to achieve these goals through different markets and administrations is not new.
With President-elect Trump’s election promises and funding challenges to Social Security and Medicare, there are significant wild cards at play that will require close attention.
