A scratchpad…
Journamalism: Does anybody want to argue that Jeremy W. Peters, Jack Healy and Campbell Robertson should not immediately leave the journalism profession, this hour?
Jeremy W. Peters, Jack Healy & Campbell Robertson: Pundits Said Harris Won the Debate. Undecided Voters Weren’t So Sure: ‘Voters said the vice president talked about a sweeping vision to fix the country’s most stubborn problems. But they wanted the fine print… <nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/unde…>
As Kieran Healy says:
Kieran Healy: ‘The image of a substantial contingent of “undecided” voters watching the debate, listening to Trump go on about cat-eating immigrants, thoughtfully stroking their chins, and remarking to their spouse that they should like to hear more “fine print” from Harris on policy is quite delightful, really… <threads.net/@kjhealy/post/C_xtSdcRosV>
Economics: The “shelter” index as reported by the BLS continues to be at substantial variance with reality—reporting price increases in housing costs that are simply not happening out there in the world. Even so, reported numbers and the 0.5%-point per year gap between the CPI and the Federal Reserve’s PCE chain-inflation price index tell us that inflation has been at the Federal Reserve’s target level for more than a year. The touchdown part of the economy’s soft landing took place last summer. And if one marks the shelter component down to reality, the inflation reality right now is that it is at a level lower than the target the Federal Reserve seeks to hit:
BLS: ‘The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2[247] percent on a seasonally adjusted basis…. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent…. The index for shelter rose 0.5 percent in August and was the main factor in the all items increase…. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August…. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months… <bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm>
So why—with the labor market weakening, and thus further downward pressures on the inflation rate gathering—is policy not in neutral? Yes, Chris Waller says that now is not a time for patience but for action in reducing interest rates. But surely the action needed is a monetary policy that is neutral, or even a little bit stimulative, rather than to take steps over the next year to shift from a substantially restrictive monetary policy to a moderately restrictive one. Isn’t it?
And, of course, things are complicated by the Federal Reserve’s failure to provide meaningful forward guidance. To what level—were inflationary and deflationary shocks to balance each other over the next five years—does the Federal Reserve believe it should guide interest rates in the future, and how long does it think it ought to take to get there? “We are going to ease for a while, until we decide it is time to stop” is not, I think, the kind of “data dependence” that makes anybody happy.
American Nationalism: What happens when we move from Andrew Jackson the campaigner and Jacksonianism the movement to Andrew Jackson the administrator and the policies of the Jackson administration? I find myself largely at sea. It is very hard, very hard indeed to figure out what was actually going on inside the Jackson administration. If you have a good source you trust—or think you do—I would love to know what it is. He hated Nicholas Biddle. He hated John C. Calhoun. He hated the Five Civilized Tribes. And did anything else really drive his personal policy? And how did that mix into what was the mélange that became his administration’s policy? Everyone writing I have studies brings their own spin—usually for reasons strongly connected with the contemporary politics of their day—and selects the items they like best from the buffet:
Brad DeLong: “The Hunters of Kentucky”: The Jacksonian Thread of American Nationalism: ‘What I see as the third of the major strains of American national identity—behind Massachusetts-Puritan and Virginia-Cavalier: Kentucky-Frontier. No, Andrew Jackson’s victory at the Battle of New Orleans wasn’t due to a band of mythical sharpshooters—the “Hunters of Kentucky”—but within a decade, that legend became an inseparable part of Jackson’s image. & it became unwise to dispute it in an American bar. & so by 1829 for Jacksonians Jackson’s inauguration was the moment when America was rescued from both external and internal enemies, & it was only by trusting & following his policy twists-&-turns & taking his shifting set of enemies as their own that they could be & remain truly free. This was & is the Kentucky-Frontier strain of American nationalism, and it is powerful & mythical to this day, & its mythical nature does not reduce its power… <braddelong.substack.com/p/the-hunters-o…>
